How Have Living Conditions Changed Across African Provinces from 1990 to 2019?

What are the main takeaways from the African wealth improvement data (1990–2019)?

The data show broad but uneven improvements in material living conditions across Africa over nearly three decades. Most provinces saw modest gains, a smaller group experienced very strong or exceptional progress, and a small minority stagnated or declined.

• Coverage: 855 first-level administrative regions (states/provinces) in African countries.
• Time span: Change in average IWI from 1990–1992 to 2017–2019.
• Overall progress: About 96% of provinces show a positive improvement score.
• Average change: Mean improvement is roughly 0.051 IWI units.
• Top performer: Banjul (Gambia) with an improvement of about 0.32 IWI units (rank 1).
• Largest decline: Littoral (Benin) with an improvement of about -0.078 IWI units (rank 855).

What does this African wealth improvement table measure?

The table reports how average material wealth changed between the early 1990s and the late 2010s for every first-level administrative region across Africa. Each row corresponds to a unique country–province pair and includes the province’s rank and its change in the International Wealth Index (IWI) over time.

Higher improvement scores indicate larger gains in average household wealth as captured by the IWI, while lower or negative scores indicate slow progress, stagnation, or decline in living conditions.

• Country: The African country the province belongs to.
• Province: First-level administrative unit (state, province, region, etc.).
• Rank: Position from 1 (largest improvement) to 855 (largest decline).
• Improvement: Difference between the province’s mean IWI in 2017–2019 and in 1990–1992.

Where do these African wealth estimates come from?

The wealth estimates are derived from a deep-learning model that predicts the International Wealth Index (IWI) using time series of satellite imagery and survey data. The model was introduced by Pettersson et al. (2023) and applied across Africa to build the Temporal Neighborhood-Level Material Wealth Maps for the 1990–2019 period.

The IWI itself is a standardized asset-based index commonly used to compare household wealth across countries and over time. In this dataset, predicted IWI values are aggregated to the province level and averaged within each time window.

For full methodological details, see: Pettersson et al. (2023), Time Series of Satellite Imagery Improve Deep Learning Estimates of Neighborhood-Level Poverty in Africa, IJCAI 2023.

How is the living conditions “improvement” score calculated?

For each province, the improvement score is defined as the difference between its mean IWI in 2017–2019 and its mean IWI in 1990–1992. A positive value means average wealth increased, while a negative value signals a decline over this period.

1. Compute the mean IWI for all locations within a province in 1990–1992.
2. Compute the mean IWI for the same province in 2017–2019.
3. Subtract the early 1990s mean from the late 2010s mean to obtain the improvement score.

The resulting scores can be compared across provinces to understand relative gains in living conditions, but they do not represent income or consumption in local currency terms.

How large are the typical changes in wealth across African provinces?

Most African provinces experienced modest but positive changes in IWI, with a smaller subset achieving strong or exceptional improvements. Only a small fraction saw no gain or a decline.

• No gain or decline (≤ 0): 33 provinces (~3.9%).
• Modest gain (0–0.05): 519 provinces (~60.7%).
• Moderate gain (0.05–0.10): 161 provinces (~18.8%).
• Strong gain (0.10–0.15): 61 provinces (~7.1%).
• Very strong gain (0.15–0.20): 46 provinces (~5.4%).
• Exceptional gain (> 0.20): 35 provinces (~4.1%).

These figures highlight that while transformative gains occurred in a subset of regions, the majority of African provinces followed a path of gradual, incremental improvement in material living conditions.

Which African provinces saw the largest gains in living conditions?

The provinces with the highest improvement scores are concentrated in parts of West, Southern, and North Africa, with several Egyptian provinces appearing among the top ranks. These areas show the most substantial gains in average household wealth over the study period.

Provinces such as Banjul (Gambia, rank 1, improvement ≈ 0.32), Bamako (Mali, rank 2, ≈ 0.31), and Francistown (Botswana, rank 3, ≈ 0.28) lead the list, reflecting notable improvements in material living standards. Several Egyptian provinces also rank near the top, including Kafr ash Shaykh (rank 4), Ash Sharqiyah (rank 6), Bur Sa`id (rank 7), and Luxor (rank 9).

Beyond these top performers, other urban hubs such as Gaborone (Botswana, rank 11), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia, rank 38), and Nairobi (Kenya, rank 41) also exhibit strong gains, suggesting that urbanization and infrastructure investment have played an important role.

Which African provinces saw little or negative change in living conditions?

A small set of provinces experienced minimal gains or outright declines in their IWI scores. These cases often reflect regions affected by conflict, geographic isolation, weak infrastructure, or economic shocks that offset broader continental progress.

Littoral in Benin (rank 855) stands out with a notable decline in its improvement score (≈ -0.078), while Bayelsa in Nigeria (rank 854, ≈ -0.009) and several provinces in Uganda and Cameroon also show negative or near-zero changes.

Some conflict-affected or fragile regions also rank near the bottom, such as Haute-Kotto in the Central African Republic (rank 837) and Northern Bahr el Ghazal in South Sudan (rank 723), underscoring the damaging impact of instability and violence on long-run development.

What regional patterns in African wealth improvement stand out?

The rankings reveal clear regional contrasts: many North African and select Southern and West African provinces cluster near the top, while parts of Central, East, and some West African regions show slower progress. This pattern reflects differences in economic growth, governance, conflict exposure, and infrastructure investment across the continent.

• North Africa: Provinces in Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco are frequently among the top performers, with multiple Egyptian governorates in the top 20, likely reflecting sustained investment in infrastructure, education, and health.
• Southern Africa: Botswana’s Francistown and Gaborone rank highly, benefiting from relative political stability and effective management of natural resources.
• Central and East Africa: Several provinces in countries like the Central African Republic, South Sudan, and parts of Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo record weaker gains, often overlapping with areas affected by conflict or state fragility.
• West Africa: The pattern is mixed; capitals like Bamako and Banjul show strong improvements, while other areas, such as Littoral in Benin, experience stagnation or decline.

Overall, the data highlight a regional divide in wealth development: while progress is widespread, it is far from evenly distributed.

Do urban centers improve faster than rural areas?

Many capital cities and major urban hubs exhibit faster wealth improvements than rural regions, reflecting the concentration of services, infrastructure, and economic opportunities in cities. However, urban status alone does not guarantee strong performance.

• High-performing cities: Gaborone (Botswana, rank 11), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia, rank 38), and Nairobi (Kenya, rank 41) all post large gains, mirroring rapid urban development and investment.
• Mixed urban outcomes: Kinshasa City (Democratic Republic of the Congo, rank 537, improvement ≈ 0.015) shows only modest improvement compared with other capitals, illustrating that urban growth without inclusive development can leave many households behind.

These differences suggest that while urbanization tends to support higher improvements in IWI, the quality of governance, planning, and social policy strongly shapes how inclusive those gains are.

What do differences within countries tell us about inequality?

Large gaps between provinces in the same country highlight uneven regional development and potential intra-national inequality. Provinces benefiting from better governance, investment, or connectivity often outpace others that face marginalization or conflict.

In Nigeria, for example, Lagos (rank 114, improvement ≈ 0.123) has seen substantial gains, while Bayelsa (rank 854, ≈ -0.009) has slipped backward. Similar within-country contrasts are visible in several other nations, emphasizing the need for targeted regional policies rather than one-size-fits-all national strategies.

How should these African wealth rankings be interpreted?

The rankings offer a valuable, high-level lens on long-term changes in material living conditions, but they should be interpreted with care. The IWI is an asset-based index, and the underlying values are model estimates rather than direct survey observations for every year and province.

• Comparative, not absolute: Improvement scores are best used to compare provinces to each other or to track broad trends, rather than as precise measures of income or consumption.
• Model-based estimates: Deep-learning predictions from satellite imagery are powerful but can contain biases, especially in areas with limited ground-truth survey data.
• Context matters: Local events—such as conflict, policy reforms, epidemics, or climate shocks—may help explain sudden gains or declines that the numbers alone cannot fully capture.

Combining this dataset with qualitative fieldwork, national statistics, and other socioeconomic indicators yields a more complete picture of how poverty and wealth are evolving across Africa.

How can policymakers, NGOs, and researchers use this dataset?

The provincial wealth improvement rankings provide a starting point for identifying both success stories and areas at risk of being left behind. They can guide where to deepen analysis, invest resources, and evaluate the impact of past interventions.

• Targeting interventions: Focus additional funding or programs on provinces that show minimal or negative improvements, especially where conflict or climate risks are high.
• Learning from high performers: Study policies and investments in top-ranked provinces such as Banjul, Bamako, or Francistown to understand which approaches may be replicable elsewhere.
• Monitoring progress: Use changes in IWI over time as one input to track the effectiveness of poverty reduction strategies at subnational level.

Because the data are spatially explicit and time-resolved, they are well suited for combining with climate models, conflict data, or infrastructure maps to explore how different drivers shape long-run development trajectories.

How can I access and reuse the full African wealth improvement dataset?

The table on this page is a province-level summary derived from the Temporal Neighborhood-Level Material Wealth Maps of Africa (1990–2019). You can use the links below to download the underlying data and country-level summaries for your own analysis.

• Download raw data: Temporal Neighborhood-Level Material Wealth Maps — full province-level data with IWI estimates for all time windows.
• Download province ranks: Province-aggregated rankings — Province-level summaries of average improvement and rank distributions.

Please cite the original IJCAI 2023 paper by Pettersson et al. when using these data in academic work or policy reports.

Frequently asked questions about African wealth improvement (1990–2019)

Is the International Wealth Index (IWI) the same as income?

No. The IWI is an asset-based index that captures household ownership of durable goods, housing quality, and access to basic services. It correlates with income and consumption but should not be interpreted as a direct measure of either.

Why do some provinces show negative improvement?

Negative scores occur when predicted average wealth in 2017–2019 is lower than in 1990–1992. This can reflect genuine decline in living conditions, changes in measurement coverage, or shocks such as conflict, economic crises, or environmental disasters.

Can I compare scores between provinces in different countries?

Yes. One strength of the IWI is that it is designed for cross-country comparability. However, it is still important to complement these comparisons with local knowledge and other socioeconomic indicators.

How often are the wealth maps updated?

The current dataset covers 10 time windows between 1990 and 2019. Future updates will depend on the availability of new satellite imagery, survey data, and model releases by the research team.

Can this data be used for small-area targeting within provinces?

Yes, the underlying wealth maps are generated at a finer spatial resolution than provinces, which can support neighborhood-level or district-level targeting. This page, however, focuses on the province-level summary for ease of comparison.